Read ARAWC Government Relations Consultant AJ Donelson’s update below:
Voters in 46 states decided on 6,279 state legislative races, 36 governors and 133 statewide ballot measures.
Just as the federal election defied expectations of a Republican “red wave” so too did results at the state level, where voters pretty much “stayed the course.” Republicans maintained their strong majority in state legislatures, but Democrats “dodged a bullet” by not suffering a typical mid-term election drop-off.
Going into the election, Republicans controlled 62 legislative chambers to the Democrats’ 37. Coming out of election day, the count is tentatively 55 Republican chambers to 40 for the Democrats, plus four outstanding.
Of the changes that did happen, Democrats are on pace to pick up two governor’s seats (Maryland and Massachusetts) and gain control in four legislative chambers: the Minnesota Senate, both the House and Senate in Michigan, and the Pennsylvania House.
For a mid-term election, a change of control for only four legislative bodies is low by historical standards. On average, 12 chambers flip each two-year cycle.
Rather than “change of control”, this election saw continued consolidation of states under single-party control. All but two legislatures continue to be under single party rule. Pennsylvania and Virginia are the only two legislatures with split party control going into 2023.
While Democrats gained four chambers, Republicans continued (and in some cases increased) their dominance in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina and Wisconsin by securing supermajorities in one or both legislative chambers.
Democrats picked up four new state trifectas – which is where one party controls the House, Senate and Governor’s office: Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland and Massachusetts.
Overall, Republicans continue to hold a trifecta in 22 states with the Democrats now holding a trifecta in 17.
When it comes to Governors, Republicans will continue to hold a slight edge in the number of governorships.
The number of women governors will increase from its current historic high of nine women governors to at least twelve women Governors in 2023. The percentage of women legislators will remain at about 30%.
In addition to individual races, there were 133 ballot issues decided on election day. Issues included taxes, election administration, wages, rights of organized labor, abortion, gun control, marijuana, sports betting, and state constitutional revisions.
Five abortion measures were decided on Election Day, and they all broke in the pro-choice direction. On gun control, Iowa codified a right to keep and bear arms in their constitution, while Oregon voters passed the strictest controls in the nation, requiring training to obtain a permit and restricting transfer of ownership. On marijuana legalization, Maryland and Missouri approved legalization measures while similar measures were defeated in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.
As final ballots are counted, this past election day saw changes, but the result was really one of status quo. Voter turnout was up, continuing a trend of increasing voter turnout, but increased interest didn’t mean change. Rather, the election results continue the consolidation of single-party control – Democrats or Republicans – with the number of states that have one-party rule now at a historic high.
For the most part, red states remained red with some now a deeper shade of red. Similarly, blue states remained blue with some now a deeper shade of blue.