Eyeing the November Elections
With three months until election day, it’s time to start sizing up the federal races. Democrats currently hold the White House along with a slim majority in the Senate. Republicans control the House of Representatives by only a few votes. How is this all likely to change in November?
The last month has been an historic one in terms of Presidential campaigns. The incumbent President, who had the overwhelming support of delegates in his party announced he is withdrawing from the race. His Vice President quickly stepped in and is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. On the Republican side, the challenger is a former President, who captured complete control of the party, despite being a convicted felon and being found liable for sexual abuse. On top of all that, he survived an assassination attempt just a few short weeks ago.
What had begun to look like a certain victory for Trump is now a very competitive horse race. After President Biden withdrew from the race, Vice President Harris re-energized the Democratic Party, her campaign outraised what Biden had been raising, and Harris is quickly closing the gap in the polls. While national polls are always instructive in terms of gauging the mood of the country, the Presidential race will come down, as it always does, to who wins the Electoral College. The three most critical states are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. For Harris to win, she just about has to sweep all three of those states. Right now, polls are tightening in all three states.
In the House, where there are 435 Representatives, 218 seats are required to hold the majority. According to The Cook Political Report, Republicans are favored in 210 races with Democrats favored in 203. Each party controls half of the 22 seats currently rated as toss ups. To keep control of the House, Republicans just need to keep eight of their eleven tossup seats, without losing a district in which they are favored to win.
In the Senate, Democrats hold a 51 to 49 majority. At least one of the 51 Democratic seats will almost certainly flip to Republican hands due to the retirement of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. That leaves a 50-50 tie before one even starts to look at other states where Democrats are vulnerable. The most vulnerable Democratic seats are in Montana and Ohio with competitive races also in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. It’s not a stretch to think the Senate will flip to Republican hands, even if Harris wins the Presidential race.
With three months still remaining before election day, there will be lots of ups and downs across the electoral landscape. The significant changes that have taken place in just the last couple of months have been historic. Don’t expect this dizzying pace to lighten up any time soon.
