November Elections
Traditionally, Labor Day is the time when campaigns “kick into high gear and enter the home stretch.” It is a time when the public, inundated with political ads and social media posts, begins to pay attention. A more accurate picture of possible results begins to emerge as we get closer to election day. Here is a quick snapshot of where the federal elections stand today.
Presidential election. Coming out of the Labor Day break, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris can only be considered a tossup. Nate Silver, a respected national source on interpreting the results of national and state polls, in his most recent Silver Bullet 2024 Presidential election forecast, has Harris up on Trump nationally by 3.5% but still has Trump as the favorite to win the electoral college. This split is due to several factors, a primary one being the large voter population block in large, traditionally blue states. This gives Republicans nationally an electoral college edge even if a Democrat wins the popular vote.
But to simplify things as you watch the polls between now and election day, if you want to focus on only one polling statistic, look at the difference between Harris and Trump in terms of the national average. According to Silver, Trump’s win probability remains greater than that of Harris as long as he keeps Harris’ lead in the national polls less than 2%. For example, if Harris leads Trump nationally by only 2% or less, Trump has at least a 67.9% chance of winning. However, if Harris’ lead jumps above 2%, she has at least a 63% chance of winning.
Like all polls and interpretations of polls, this is just a snapshot in time of how the race stands now. As we have seen in this very mercurial campaign, things can change at the drop of a hat. Nonetheless, most pollsters agree that Harris’ chance of winning goes up as her lead in the national polls goes up. Conversely, Trump doesn’t have to win the popular vote to win the election, but he has to keep it close.
Senate. Can the Republicans regain control of the Senate? They remain the odds-on favorites to do so. Democrats currently hold a 51 to 49 majority, but that is in jeopardy simply by virtue of Senator Joe Manchin’s retirement in West Virginia, which almost assuredly will flip Republican. There are competitive races in Montana, Ohio, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. But if you want to focus on only two states, follow what happens in Montana and Ohio. Both states are traditionally red states with the Senate seat held by a Democrat. The incumbents aren’t unpopular, but both states are still reliably red. It will be hard for both incumbents to win. If they do, and Harris wins the Presidential, Democrats probably maintain control of the Senate. But if either Montana or Ohio flips into Republican hands, Republicans will regain control of the Senate, no matter who wins the Presidential.
House. 218 seats are required to hold the majority. There are roughly 22 seats up for grabs, with half controlled by Republicans and half controlled by Democrats. Since Republicans already hold a slight majority, they need to win less than half those toss ups to maintain control. This is an area where Presidential coat-tails may matter. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Trump wins and Democrats take over the House. Conversely, Democrats’ chances in the House increase if Harris wins and their odds of control increase with each percentage point win by Harris.
Bottom line. Right now, it is still too early to accurately predict any of these contests but there are a few keys to watch for if you want to get an accurate picture of how the election is going.
